Here Is the Answer of Mathematics
Horse races have always been unique sporting moments, for their unpredictability and for the emotions they can give (especially to good bettors). Now, a group of Parisian mathematicians, who have been studying how to maximize the performance of human racers for years, seems to have developed a model capable of suggesting to jockeys the winning strategy to ensure triumphs over small and large distances.
Analyzing World Champion Athletes
Amandine Aftalion and her group from the “École des hautes études en sciences socialesin” Paris have been analyzing the performance of world champion athletes (such as sprinter Usain Bolt) since 2013 and found that short-distance runners tend to win when they initially start with a lot of energy and then gradually slow down as they approach the finish line. On the other hand, in mid-distance races, such as 1600 meters, runners have better results when they start strong, settle down and then finish with a final acceleration. The model developed for humans reveals that those strategies that maximize the energy production of the muscles are successful, which perform two types of work: aerobic, power, oxygen-requiring, and has a limited duration during a competition. and the anaerobic one, which does not require oxygen but which accumulates “waste” products that lead to fatigue.
Model That Represented Winning Strategies
Amandine Aftalion and Quentin Mercier used a new GPS tracking tool built into the saddles of the French jockeys. These trackers allow fans to watch digital images of horses moving on a screen and have provided scholars with real-time speed and position data. Studying numerous races held at Chantilly racecourses, north of Paris, the mathematicians developed a model that represented winning strategies for three different types of runs: a short (1300 meters), a medium (1900 meters) and a slightly longer (2100 meters), all with different points starting on the same curved track. The model takes into account not only the different distances but also the dimensions and curvature of the curves of the track and any slopes or friction of the surface.
The results, published on PLOS ONE, speak for themselves: a good start leads to a better ending. But be careful because this does not necessarily mean that the jockeys who hold the horses at the beginning and then unleash them at the end are wrong, because even a too intense start can be devastating, leaving the horse “exhausted at the end”, explains Aftalion.
In theory, the model could allow trainers to enter parameters related to individual horses, such as their specific aerobic abilities, to obtain customized running strategies, thus obtaining valuable advice on the pace to keep or on what is the ideal running distance for that steed. “Computer developers could even create an app“, adds Aftalion.
It must be said, however, that horses vary so much in terms of body size and aerobic capacity that the models developed over the past forty years have not proved capable of explaining horse behaviors. “For example, – explains Peter Knight, a veterinarian at the University of Sydney with over thirty years of experience in racetracks – one horse could give up when another overtakes it, because it doesn’t understand that it has to win. Until the researchers are able to get inside the horse’s head and also take psychological variables into account, we can’t really model their performance.” And perhaps that is precisely why horse racing will remain exciting forever.